REM (and Policymakers) Say "It's the End of the World as we Know it."

Or is it?

At this point I will be very surprised if Congress comes up with some last minute deal to stop sequestration from happening.  I've been wrong before many times (and on many subjects).  But with members of Congress leaving this afternoon for their districts I don’t see much hope.  And when the Speaker of the House says "[w]e should not have to move a third bill before the Senate gets off their a** and begins to do something," (as quoted in the Detroit Free Press) that’s never a good sign for either bipartisan or bicameral action.

No matter how frustrated we are with process, however, it’s important to remember that the question of whether these cuts stick – and for how long -- remains up to the American people.  Legislators will be back at home over the weekend, so now’s the time to tell them what you think.  Following are some tips on how to so to:

• Be clear about your position: At a minimum be clear whether you’re “OK with it” or “not OK with it.”  If you’re not OK with it, why?  Are flight delays really getting you down? (full disclosure, I’m flying on Sunday – hopefully).  Have the cuts impacted your job?  Your family?  Your health?  Your leisure time?  The weather (hopefully not).  Whatever it is that’s bugging you, tell that personal story.

• Recognize that reasonable people can disagree:  Because of the way district lines are drawn, many legislators represent citizens on just one end or the other of the political spectrum.  For example, there are some real differences between residents of the 12^th district of California (Rep. Pelosi) and the 8^th district of Ohio (Rep. Boehner) in terms of education level, occupation type, language spoken, commuting patterns – the list goes on and on.  I know this because I did a little research on www.census.gov.  In short, day-to-day life is very different for the citizens of these two areas.  Their political views, as well as the views of their representatives, reflect those differences.  So no matter how frustrated you are, remember that members of Congress are trying to reconcile the widely varying views of the American public. 

• Finally, please, please, please know what you’re talking about:  To paraphrase cartoonist Walt Kelly, “we have seen the enemy, and he (or she) is us.”  Why do I say that?  Well, according to Pew research polls (and as reported in this US News and World Report piece), “. . . two weeks ago, 72 percent of Americans cited reducing the deficit and cutting spending as items that should be the president and Congress's top priority. However, this week, when specifically asked what to cut, Americans polled didn't want to cut much at all! As a matter of fact, many programs they wanted to remain funded as is or to increase, with the exception of a small percentage that wanted less funding to go overseas for foreign aid.”  Sorry everyone, but “foreign aid” is less than .5% of the overall Federal budget.  It’s not going to make a dent.  We find more change in the couch cushions in Washington, D.C. than that.  Please don’t suggest this as a solution.  

Perhaps the best advice I can give is to be nice.  In politics, as in life, the person who disagrees with grace and respect gets the most attention.  They’re much more pleasant to deal with.

***The above article was written by Stephanie Vance, The Advocacy Guru. Follow her on Twitter. 

The 2008 Farm Bill Extension and 2013 Farm Bill

The uncertainty for the passage of a five year Farm Bill in the 112^th Congress came to an end on New Year’s Day with the passage of H.R. 8 The American Taxpayer Relief Act.  The bill was passed to avoid the fiscal cliff, a collection of spending cuts and tax increases that might have plunged the country into another recession, and included a 9 month partial Farm Bill extension. 

The extension only includes basic tenants of the Farm Bill and failed to reauthorize and fund several programs. The National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition has a blog post with a very detail explanation as to why the Farm Bill extension is so awful. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack stated in his interview with NPR that those reliant on Farm Bill programs “…are now faced with uncertainty with how the policies might be, [they are faced with] uncertainty with how much support will ultimately be available once a five year bill is eventually past.”

Looking to the future, Senate Agriculture Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) said in an interview that she expects to pass a Farm Bill in the coming months. The bill may be marked up in the Senate committee as early as February and should include a minimum of $24 billion of deficit reduction. On the House side, Chairman Frank Lucas (R-OK) said during the Agriculture Committee's organizational meeting on January 22nd that "...this is a new Congress and a new opportunity to pass a new Farm Bill." House Ranking Member Collin Peterson (D-MN) is leading an effort to block a Farm Bill markup without the assurance from the House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) that the bill will see floor time. He expressed some of his frustration during the organizational meeting. 

*** Follow Nick on Twitter. 

Congress Prevents The Fiscal Cliff By Creating Another Cliff

Early in the morning on New Year's Day, Congress passed legislation to avert the ominous "fiscal cliff", a combination of spending cuts and tax increases that could have reverted the nation into a recession. The bill is now on its way to President Obama's desk to be signed.

In the Senate, the bill passed by a vote of 89-8 with 3 Democrats and 5 Republicans voting against the bill. The House passed the bill by a vote of 257-167 with 16 Democrats and 151 Republicans voting against the cliff deal.

The fiscal cliff deal, officially H.R. 8, The American Taxpayer Relief Act, includes the following provisions:

- Permanently extends Bush tax cuts for the majority of taxpayers. Taxes will increase on individuals making $400,000 or more and couples making $450,000 or more.

- Taxes on capital gains and dividends will remain the same for individuals making less than $400,000 and households with an income of less than $450,000. The top tax rate of capital gains will increase from 15% to 20%.

- Tax exceptions will be phased out for individuals making $250,000 or more and families earning more than $300,000.

- Delays sequestration cuts for 2 months. The delay will be paid for with savings from adjustments in federal pensions as well as cuts in discretionary and military spending.

- One year extension for unemployment insurance.

- One year "Doc Fix" that prevents 27% cut in physicians' reimbursement for Medicare.

- Estate tax will increase from 35% to 40% for the first $5 million in assets.

- Alternative Minimum Tax will permanently be tied to inflation.

- Five year extensions of the American Opportunity Tax Credit, Child Tax Credit, and the Earned Income Tax Credit.

- Business tax breaks.

- Nine month Farm Bill extension.

- Congressional pay freeze.

Although the nation did not fall off the cliff, the fiscal cliff deal may have setup a future crisis that the 113th Congress will need to tackle in the coming months. The crisis will be the simultaneous enactment of sequestration cuts and the debt limit expiration. Additionally, the FY13 budgeting CR will expire a few weeks after.  Prepare for the fiscal cliff 2.0.

Which Pink Unicorns to Watch During Debates on the Fiscal Cliff

Grover Norquist, President of Americans for Tax Reform, made the shocking revelation today on NPR's Morning Edition that pink unicorns do not exist and neither does a potential sequestration deal that would significantly raise taxes.  As the author of the "no new taxes" pledge that, in the 112th Congress, all but 6 Republican members of the House and 7 members of the Senate signed, his views carry some weight.  Although many in D.C. believe that tax increases on at least some portion of the population must be included in any fiscal cliff deal, there's been no wave of defections, as of yet, from Norquist's pledge.

This matters because it means that the partisan impasse that has plagued Congress over the last few years will continue for the next few weeks.  Remember, the members of the 112th Congress are still the ones calling the shots, not the newly elected 113th.

Let's look at the raw numbers for efforts to pass a deal:

• 218 votes are need for any deal to pass the Hous
• The Republicans hold 242 seats for the remainder of 112th (far more than needed)
• Of those 242, 236 have signed the "no new taxes" pledge (again, more than needed to support passage of a deal)
• 51 votes are needed for a deal to pass the Senate floor (or in the case of a filibuster, 60)
• The Democrats hold 53 of those seats (including the Independents) for the remainder of the 112th
• Of the 47 Republicans in the Senate, 40 have signed the pledge (i.e., 1 vote shy of the votes needed to break a filibuster)

It may seem like too much math, but these numbers, along with the tax pledge and the President's strong message that any deal must include tax increases on the wealthiest of Americans, lay out some interesting scenarios.  They seem to suggest that everything could boil down to the decisions of a few key Republicans in the House and Senate -- those who did not sign the tax pledge.

So who are these about to be inundated legislators?  According to the Americans for Tax Reform site, they are:


HOUSE
NY-24 Richard Hanna
GA-07 Rob Woodall
PA-19 Todd Russell Platts
VA-01 Rob Wittman
VA-10 Frank Wolf
KS-03 Kevin Yoder

SENATE
IN-Sen Richard Lugar
IA-Sen Charles Grassley
ME- Sen Olympia Snowe
ME- Sen Susan Collins
MS-Sen Thad Cochran
WY- Sen John Barrasso
ND-Sen John Hoeven

And remember, again (I promise it will be the last time I mention it), even though some of these people will be leaving, they are still sitting members and will be part of the upcoming negotiations.

It's going to be hot and heavy in the next few weeks -- particularly in these offices.  I feel sorry for the staff.