2014 Midterm Recap: Study Up So You Can Start Preparing for 2015 Advocacy!

I’m sure you’ve been hearing a lot about the election results since polls closed on Tuesday.  In case you missed anything or got lost in the masses of news stories coming out, we’ve highlighted the key takeaways from the House, Senate, and gubernatorial races all in one place.

Major takeaway:  Republicans had a really good night on Tuesday.  They won enough seats to take control of the Senate back from Democrats for the first time in eight years and expanded their majority in the House.

More specifically, in the Senate…

• On Tuesday night, Republicans picked up 7 seats in the Senate previously held by Democrats (Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia).  They only needed 6 to take control of the Senate. 
• New Hampshire and Minnesota were predicted to be tight races and incumbent Democrats managed to hold their seats in both states.
• In Kansas, Republican incumbent Pat Roberts held onto his seat in what was projected to be a very tight race against Independent candidate George Orman. 
• Georgia held onto its Republican Senate seat in a race where many thought, prior to the election, it would go to a runoff.
• The Alaska Senate race has not yet been called, but Republican Dan Sullivan, is currently holding onto a slight lead over incumbent Democrat Mark Begich, so Republicans could pick up another seat in this state.
• Louisiana’s Senate race has been forced to a runoff, which will take place in December.  It will still be a tight race, but many are saying that Republican candidate Bill Cassidy is projected to beat out incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu.
•  Mitch McConnell managed to hang onto his seat in Kentucky over Democratic candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes.  He is expected to be elected the new Senate Majority Leader by Senate Republicans in January.
• A total of 34 states had Senate races this cycle.

Meanwhile, in the House of Representatives…

• All 435 members of the House were up for reelection this year.
•  Republicans controlled the House this past Congress, and while not all races have officially been called, Republicans have clearly increased their majority in the House by at least 10 seats.

And the Governors’ races?

• Races for governor took place in 36 states this cycle.
• Republicans picked up 4 gubernatorial seats from Democrats in Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts.
• Democrats only picked up Pennsylvania, with Democrat Tom Wolf beating out incumbent Republican Governor Tom Corbett.
• The race in Alaska is still too close to call, with absentee ballots expected to continue to trickle in for the next week to 10 days.  As of now, Independent candidate Bill Walker has a slight lead over incumbent Republican Governor Sean Parnell.

Regardless of your feelings about the outcome of this election, it's now time to start thinking about how to prepare your advocacy strategy for the 114^th Congress.  Stay tuned on our blog for some upcoming tips to begin planning your advocacy activities for the next month and the next year!

Election Day is Here! Have You Voted Yet?

Today is the big day…Election Day!!  Have you voted yet?  If you have, good job and congratulations!  Hopefully you’re proudly wearing your “I Voted” sticker for everyone to see.

If you haven’t made it to the polls, yet, it’s not too late!  Need to find your polling location?  Want to figure out how to register to vote at the polls and what documentation you need?  Check out your state’s Board of Elections website for all this information and more.  You can also check out CanIVote.org, an awesome site where you can plug in your state and they’ll bring you straight to your state Board of Elections site, so you don’t even have to take the time to run a Google search.

Bottom line, get out to the polls today and make your voice heard!  This is an important midterm, and with Republicans and Democrats fighting hard for control of the Senate, your vote really can make a difference.  In an election that’s still such a toss-up, it’s worth taking the time to stop by the polls on your way home from work today.  So find your polling location, go vote, and tell everyone you know to do the same!

Tomorrow is Election Day. What’s Your Plan to Vote?

Have you ever seen people walking around in past years with an “I voted” sticker and felt a little twinge of guilt because you didn’t have one?  I know I have.  Tomorrow is Election Day, and these midterm elections have everyone on the edge of their seats.  If Republicans win six seats, they can take control of the Senate, and races in key states like Arkansas, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Kansas remain incredibly tight.

While there are always going to be some people who choose not to vote because they believe their vote doesn’t matter or because they don’t like any of the candidates, I really do believe our country’s relatively low rates of voter turnout stem from two primary facts:  (1) people have hectic schedules on Election Day, and (2) people simply aren’t aware it’s Election Day.

These days, between work, school, kids, family, and everything else we participate in or help out with, our time is both limited and valuable.  I, for one, know that breaking my daily routine can completely stress me out.  One simple way to be sure you’re ready is to create a clear voting plan for yourself on Election Day.  Block out an hour before work, during lunch, or after work to go vote and actually write it in your calendar.  Figure out ahead of time how you’ll get there and what information (like ID or proof of residence) you will need to bring with you.  Incorporating voting into your day as you would any other event outside your normal routine makes you much more likely to actually go vote on Election Day.

In addition to our crazed schedules, many Americans who would like to vote don’t do so simply because they forget it’s Election Day.  Living in Washington, it’s a little hard to imagine not knowing when elections are (seriously, people here actually make plans in advance to go to bars on election night to watch the returns), but for the rest of the country with lives that don’t revolve entirely around politics, tomorrow will be just any other Tuesday.  So, in addition to making your plan to vote, see if you can also remind at least three other people it’s Election Day.  Post a link to local polling locations on Facebook, tweet about how excited you are to vote, and tell your family and coworkers to stop by the polls as well.  Simply reminding people about the elections will help mobilize those who are want to vote but may have just forgotten.

Regardless of your political beliefs, this election is an important one, and getting people to vote, especially in states with tight races, will undoubtedly have an impact on the outcome.  So make your plan to vote tomorrow and tell everyone you know they should do the same.  And once you’ve done this, in addition to feeling like a proud, civically-engaged American, you’ll get to be the one walking around the office or the grocery store or down the street smugly wearing that coveted “I voted” sticker and making everyone else feel slightly guilty if they haven’t yet made it to the polls.

How a Candidate Could Win the Popular Vote but Lose the Elections

I come neither to praise the Electoral College nor to bury it. I come to explain it. I get this question about the popular vote versus the Electoral College because, really, it makes no sense. In a democratic system, how could someone get more votes than another person but still lose? The simple reason is that the United States is not, contrary to popular belief, a true democracy. It is a democratic republic where citizen representation is based on a carefully crafted balance of federal and state rights.

The Electoral College is an important element of this balance, along with things like, well, the Senate.  It exists because the founding fathers believed that the best way to protect citizen rights is to both protect the rights and enhance the power of state governments. The way it works is that the states, not individuals, choose their candidates for President, and have as many votes as they have representatives in the House and Senate total. This approach was taken because state governments were seen as closer to the people and perhaps more understanding of the unique needs of that state. In addition, focusing the power to elect the president at the state level rather than on population gives states with smaller populations a slightly more powerful voice.  

How does that work?  Let’s look at Wyoming.  With about 568,000 people, Wyoming houses about .18% (yes, that’s point 18) of the 312 million people in the United States.  Yet with three electoral votes, Wyoming has about .5% of the overall votes in the Electoral College. Sure, .18% and .5% don’t seem like a big deal.  But the Electoral College gives this state over 2X the power it would have had based on population.  By contrast, California, with 12% of the population has just over 10% of the total votes available in the Electoral College. The differences may seem slight, but the intent is clear – to ensure that states with smaller populations have a proportionally louder voice than they would otherwise have.

How does that translate into the “popular vote versus the Electoral College” brou-ha-ha?  Let’s look at a specific example.  

• The state of California has approximately 37,692,000 residents and 55 electoral votes.  
• The state of Texas has 25,675,000 and 38 electoral votes.  
• If Romney were to win 19,000,000 of the 25,675,000 votes in Texas (not going to happen, but let’s just imagine), he’s win the popular vote in that state and the 38 electoral votes
• If Obama were to win 18,900,000 of the popular vote in California, he’d win the popular vote in California and its 55 electoral votes.  

But look at the differential: Romney has 100,000 more votes than Obama, but has still lost in the Electoral College. While this particular scenario of CA and TX is unlikely, it is illustrative of the overall potential in the 50 states.

  

Love it or leave, that’s how the Electoral College works – or doesn’t.  So stay tuned for all the fun tomorrow night!

***For more tips and strategies after the election, sign up for our FREE webinar, "Winning, No Matter Who Wins" on Thursday, November 15. More information here.

Fine, Don't Vote. But If You Don't Vote, Don't Whine

•  My vote doesn't make a difference.
•  It doesn't matter who wins. They're all the same.
•  My candidate definitely will / won't win so why bother.
•  I'm a conscientious objector to our democratic process.
•  The lines are too long.

Yep, I've heard just about every excuse in the book for not voting.  And, frankly, I'm fine with all of them.  It's your choice. But if you choose not to participate in voting, you choose not to be effective in the rest of the process.  Think of voting as just one tool in the "effective influencer's" toolbox (which also includes citizen advocacy, lobbying, protests and, yes, even financial support for a candidate).

That said, those who vote wield far more power than that which comes from a simple hammer or nail.  President Lincoln had it right when he described ours as a government "... of the people, by the people and for the people."  "Of," means citizens make the choices through voting. "By" means those elected are chosen from among the citizenry.  And "for" means the choices elected leaders make should be in the best interests of "the people."  You'll notice Lincoln didn't say of, by and/or for the people.  Democracy is a package deal.

Certainly many, many, many people believe that elected officials aren't living up to the "for the people” part of the bargain.  I’m not ever going to convince a hardened political cynic that’s not true.  However, I continue to be mystified that the response to that for so many people is to abandon their responsibility on the “of the people” side of things.  What’s the alternative?  Government “at” the people?  We see a lot of that in the world and it’s not working out so well.    

That said, if you don’t want to vote, then don’t.  But later, please don't contact your elected officials or the President with any of the following messages:

• I can't believe you didn't fund my favorite government program
• I can't believe you continued funding that stupid program
• I can't believe you're going to impose this tax
• I can't believe you aren't going to extend this tax cut
•     ... or whatever policy or funding issue you’re outraged about

Personally, I think we'll have a stronger and more responsive system of government if we all participate.  Not voting sends the signal that we really don't care how things turn out.  And maybe you don't.  But if that’s your perspective, than really don’t care -- even when things aren’t going your way.

***For more tips and strategies after the election, sign up for our FREE webinar, "Winning, No Matter Who Wins" on Thursday, November 15. More information here.

How to Trick Your Legislators into Doing What You Want - Even in an Election Year

The Guru as the Queen

If you think about it, isn’t Halloween really about using your influence to extract resources from people in authority? We can all learn a great deal from some of the 7-year olds in our communities, particularly in their approach to the time honored tradition of trick-or-treating. How?

Be Adorable: I’m not really the most “kid-friendly” person, but I must admit that when a small child of between 4 and 10, dressed as a fairy princess or spider man or even George Will (I live in DC, remember) comes to my door on Halloween, I can be suckered in — especially when they approach all breathless with anticipation at the very idea of coercing candy out of mean old Ms. Vance simply by lisping “trick or treat.” After dumping half the candy bowl in their sacks, I’ve heard these same sweet little cherubs run screaming down the stairs saying, with no discernable lisp whatsoever, “Yo, yo, yo — I got some awesome candy at that mean lady’s house.”

While I’m not suggesting that you dress in a fairy princess costume to meet with your legislators, I do suggest that you figure out how to be most appealing. Walking into a members’ office and demanding that since a) you pay their salary with your tax dollars and b) they work for you, they should c) do whatever you say without question or d) you’ll fire them is not so adorable. Try suckering them in with a positive approach – then hit them up for all the candy in the candy bowl.

Stand Out From the Crowd: How many Vampire outfits do you think you’ll see this year? Wouldn’t it be nice to see something different? I remember one year I went trick or treating as Dorothy from the Wizard of Oz. OK, not so unusual except that I took my Irish Wolfhound Megan as Toto. I cleaned up. I was eating free candy for months (or at least what I could extract from my mother). The point is that I stood out from the crowd.

How do you stand out from the crowd of people communicating with legislators? Simply by doing things other people rarely do, such as expressing an interest in the legislator’s issues, telling a personal, thoughtful story (instead of a mass-produced e-mail or postcard) and timing your communication so that it coincides with a decision point in the process. In so doing, you are tricking the system they have in place for dealing with the thousands of communications they get per week — and you will in turn gain more personal attention.

Don’t Be Greedy (Or, As a Corollary, Be Grateful): Everyone has had the experience of having a trick-or-treater at the door that wants more than his or her fair share — and actually has the gall to ask for it. While I’m a huge fan of “making the ask”, I’m not a huge fan of asking for too much. Frankly, it turns me off when, in reaction to my presentation of an appropriate amount of candy, a trick-or-treater says “geez, is that all? Mrs. Jones down the street gives everyone five pieces.” It doesn’t make me want to hand out more candy. It makes me want to reach into their snot-nosed little candy sack and take back what I already gave (see, I told you I was mean).

 Anyone “trick or treating” at their legislatures should practice making the ask and then saying “thank you” for what may be received. Effective advocates will wipe that disappointed frown off their face and maintain a positive relationship with elected officials — next year they may be able to be more generous.

Maintain a Reputation for Having the “Good Stuff”: The “good stuff”, in this case, is the really good candy. You know what I mean. Real Snickers’ instead of the Costco brand generic “Snuckers”. Popcorn balls dripping in honey. M&M’s, Starbursts, Hershey’s Chocolate bars — mmm, I’m getting hungry just thinking about it. Just as candy is the currency for Halloween, information is the currency for the policy process.

As an advocate, it is important to have quality information on the issues you care about. This includes whatever national facts, figures and trends you can get from a national group, state-level information and, most important, stories and statistics about how your policies impact people on a district-by-district basis. Your legislators are eager to know people in their districts who can answer their questions on specific policy issues. Become one of those people by doing your research — and developing a great reputation as a repository of good information.

See? Who knew there was so much to learn from Halloween? Now get our there and engage in a little trick or treating of your own with your legislators — you may be surprised at what treats you’ll get if you ask!

***For more tips and strategies after the election, sign up for our FREE webinar, "Winning, No Matter Who Wins" on Thursday, November 15. More information here.

Hurricane Sandy- October Surprise?

Life in Washington is quickly going back to normal after being brushed by Hurricane Sandy yesterday- Metro service is being restored, electricity is coming back, and politicos are debating the impact of the storm on the upcoming election.

While certainly there are more pressing matters on the Eastern Seaboard at the moment, it is hard to ignore the fact that the hurricane hit one week before a very close presidential election. Logistically, holding an election one week after Hurricane Sandy could prove difficult in cities and regions still lacking electricity; the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is reportedly looking into ways to power electronic voting machines in areas without power on Election Day. Hurricane Sandy also halted early voting and absentee voting in several states; Maryland and the District of Columbia had to cancel early voting yesterday and today, and officials are extending early voting hours to make up for the lost time. Though it will be difficult to tell what impact that has on voter turnout, it isn’t impossible to imagine that those who have had severe property damage or are without power may not turn out to vote in as high numbers as they would have otherwise.

Candidates hoping to make a last push in swing states have also been derailed by the storm; both the Romney and Obama campaigns have cancelled events, though Romney has been holding “relief rallies” in Ohio to collect supplies for storm victims. President Obama is off the campaign trail until at least Thursday, as he plans to tour disaster sites in New Jersey tomorrow, though campaign representatives such as Bill Clinton are being dispatched to swing states for events.

Like hanging chads in Florida, political scientists will debate the impact of the storm for years to come. Will President Obama gain traction in states like Virginia because of his response to the storm, or will Romney’s response help to endear him to voters?  If voter turnout is down in impacted states, was Sandy the cause or was voter apathy a more likely explanation? As Ralph Nader certainly knows, these theories are ones that are unlikely to ever be proved or disproved.

***For more tips and strategies after the election, sign up for our FREE webinar, "Winning, No Matter Who Wins" on Thursday, November 15. More information here.

My Own Post-Debate Fact Checking

I am completely and totally unqualified to comment in any way on the "facts," figures and statements about "who said what when" that were raised in last night's presidential debate.  However, with my Master's degree in Legislative Affairs (which hasn't really been very impressive until just this moment), I can say that there's one procedural fact that I saw as a little off.  In short, Mr. Romney doesn't seem to understand the basic logistics of how bills get introduced at the federal level.

Several times during the debate, he stated that President Obama had not "filed" legislation on Immigration Reform.  The term filed implies (at least in my mind) that the President can introduce legislation.  Or, at least, that there's a formal, constitutionally (or rules-oriented) process for the Executive to put stuff in front of Congress.

However, the truth is that although the executive can certainly suggest changes to law, he (or she someday) doesn't "file" anything with anyone.  Here's what the parliamentarian has to say about the executive's role in bill introduction:

In modern times, the ''executive communication'' has become a prolific source of legislative proposals. The communication is usually in the form of a message or letter from a member of the President's Cabinet, the head of an independent agency, or the President himself, transmitting a draft of a proposed bill to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President of the Senate.

If you want to read all the intricacies of the federal legislative process, you can do so here, but I'm not going to suggest doing it unless you are getting course credit for it.  "Filing" is really a state-level procedure.

I know I'm missing the overall point, which is that President Obama said he would do something on Immigration Reform, but didn't.  And I haven't said anything about how the executive really can't unilaterally achieve much (i.e., that he needs Congress to take action).  And maybe Romney used the term "filed" to refer to that "executive communication." 

This is clearly a question of semantics, but for me it's a little like those movies filmed in D.C. where a character gets on the metro in D.C., rides to the next stop and gets out in the farthest reaches of Virginia or Maryland.  It's a detail that demonstrates a lack of knowledge about the city.  In this case, Romney's use of "filed" may not be a big deal, but it irks this Master in Legislative Affairs.

Watch last night's full debate below.

***For more tips and strategies after the election, sign up for our FREE webinar, "Winning, No Matter Who Wins" on Thursday, November 15. More information here.

Congress Sets Spending Levels for First Six Months of FY13- Learn How to Prepare Your Advocates for FY13 and Beyond

Immediately prior to adjourning until after the election, Congress approved a six-month spending bill that will keep the government running when the current fiscal year ends on Sunday. Join Advocacy Associates on Thursday for the first of two free webinars on how to prepare your advocates for the election season, the new fiscal year, and beyond. Registration is now open.

The continuing resolution sets spending levels until March 27, 2013 at the $1.047 trillion level agreed upon in the Budget Control Act, the deal reached last summer to raise the debt ceiling. The spending cap for FY13 is slightly higher than FY12 levels, which will boost programs by .621% across the board and will allow $1.992 billion in additional funding to go to various projects and disaster relief.

The agreement marks a compromise between the House and the Senate, which based its individual spending bills on wildly differing topline levels. Conservative members of the House had been pushing the budget resolution introduced by Vice Presidential candidate Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), which would have lowered overall spending for FY13 by $19 billion. The Senate, on the other hand, supported the topline numbers agreed upon in the BCA.  In what seemed like a contradictory vote, the bill passed handily in the House, but passed by a narrower margin in the Senate. The President is expected to sign it into law this week.

After the election, fiscal issues such as sequestration, tax reform, and deficit control will dominate the lame duck session of Congress. Join Advocacy Associates for two free webinars to help you prepare your advocates and policy issues for the election season and beyond, regardless of the outcome of the election. Register here. 

Winning, No Matter Who Wins

It's frustrating to see constant poll results identifying our nation's "most important problem" when the word bank voters are given to choose from is really small. What about improved transportation choices? Library funding? Stroke prevention? Workforce development? What about your issue?

In addition to worrying about whether the right issues are being discussed, there is the problem of identifying and electing the best advocates for your cause to Congress or City Council. At this point in the election season we are inundated daily with messages proclaiming doom if "the other guy" wins. It can be tempting to spend time calculating the exact results necessary on Election Day to ensure your organization's cause has a chance.

Advocacy Associates believes that with the right preparation, you can have your issue and advocates winning, no matter who wins. With a combined total of over 50 years of experience in grassroots communications and government relations, Advocacy Associates wants to help government affairs and grassroots professionals prepare their advocates and issues for election season and beyond.

This fall, we are providing two free webinars to help your organization get started mobilizing advocates, increasing issue visibility, preparing for post-election turnover, understanding what's at play during the Lame Duck, and defining your legislative strategy while everyone else is focused on the political.

Thursday, September 27, 3:00pm ET
Pre-Election Preparations
Register Here


Thursday, November 15, 3:00pm ET
Post-Election Strategy
Register Here

We look forward to talking advocacy with you!

Romney’s Housing Plan Could Make Homeownership More Difficult

Recently, candidate Mitt Romney released his vision for the future of the American housing market. Included in his proposal to fix the housing market is a combination of economic growth strategies and a strikingly vague list of how he’s going to stop foreclosures, dispose of vacant homes, and reform regulation. Some of these proposals sound familiar, such as his idea to “facilitate creative alternatives to foreclosure for those who cannot afford to pay their mortgage,” which  in theory is extremely similar to  Making Home Affordable (HAMP), a current Obama Administration program.

Unsurprisingly, he also supports the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a popular position among Republicans since the Government Sponsored Enterprises were placed under conservatorship in 2008. What many people don’t realize is that if the GSEs are transitioned to the private market, this means that all mortgages will transition to standards set by the private market. While having high lending standards is certainly important and could have gone a long way to prevent the very housing woes we are experiencing now, the private market has responded with credit standards that are too tight even for responsible, credit-worthy borrowers. Eliminating the GSEs will likely make it even more difficult for Americans to obtain mortgages; without the financial backing of the Federal government, lenders will be even less likely to lend to borrowers who don’t have pristine credit scores and a 20% down payment.

His plan is more worrisome when taking into consideration his proposal to eliminate the Department of Housing and Urban Development. When asked what government departments he would eliminate if elected to office, Romney said, “Things like Housing and Urban Development, which my dad was head of, might not be around later.” In addition to providing housing vouchers for the lowest income Americans and funding for community development projects, HUD also operates the Federal Housing Administration. If his plan is to eliminate all of HUD, presumably it would also include eliminating the FHA. For many Americans without the means to make a 20% down payment, FHA loans are the only way to achieve homeownership. This is particularly true for first-time homebuyers, who haven’t yet built up home equity and don’t have access to the amount of cash necessary to make a 20% down payment. As the private market tightens lending standards, the FHA has frequently been the only alternative for legitimately credit worthy borrowers, growing from only 2% of mortgages prior to the housing crisis to 30% today. The FHA is crucial for many Americans trying to transition into the middle class; eliminating both the FHA and the GSEs could make the dream of homeownership suddenly unattainable for a very large percentage of Americans.

There is no quick fix for the housing industry or the overall economy, but Romney’s position seems to suggest that there are easy, step-by-step solutions that President Obama refuses to take. Preserving the ability of middle class Americans to achieve the goal of homeownership should be an important aspect (though, not the only component) of any candidate’s housing plan. Unfortunately, Romney’s plan, while well-intentioned, appears as though it will make that dream even more difficult for Americans to achieve.