Budgets, Budgets Everywhere

It’s that time of year again – daffodils, pollen and, you guessed it, federal budgets.  Three proposals were released this week, one from the House, one from the Senate and one from the Congressional Progressive Caucus.  Not surprisingly, they all have very, very, VERY different perspectives.   You can view the hundreds of pages of details at the following sites:

Rep. Ryan (House Republican Leadership) http://budget.house.gov/

Sen. Murray (Senate Democratic Leadership) http://budget.senate.gov/democratic/index.cfm/senatebudget

Congressional Progressive Caucus: http://cpc.grijalva.house.gov/back-to-work-budget/

But Wait!

Before you get too into the specifics (including the hyperbole of the specifics), take a look at this past blog post on “The Five Things Advocates Need to Know About the Budget Process (http://advocacyassociates.blogspot.com/2012/02/five-things-advocates-need-to-know.html).   These include:

• Understanding the overall picture of the Federal government. Here’s a pet peeve: polls suggest that most Americans believe reducing or eliminating foreign aid will go a long way toward solving our budget problems. In truth, they make up about ½ of 1%. We can shake the couch cushions in DC and get more cash than that.
• Learning about the difference between the Presidential budget process and the Congressional budget process
• Knowing the difference between “budgets,” “authorizations” and “appropriations.
• Understanding discretionary vs. non-discretionary spending
• Finally, and most important, how to make a difference on the issues that matter to you

It’s easy to get mired in the details – but frankly, it’s not always the best use of everyone’s time.  If you can focus on what really matters you’ll be much less frustrated – and will be able to enjoy the coming Spring more. Except for the pollen part.

***The above article was written by Stephanie Vance, The Advocacy Guru. Follow her on Twitter. 

REM (and Policymakers) Say "It's the End of the World as we Know it."

Or is it?

At this point I will be very surprised if Congress comes up with some last minute deal to stop sequestration from happening.  I've been wrong before many times (and on many subjects).  But with members of Congress leaving this afternoon for their districts I don’t see much hope.  And when the Speaker of the House says "[w]e should not have to move a third bill before the Senate gets off their a** and begins to do something," (as quoted in the Detroit Free Press) that’s never a good sign for either bipartisan or bicameral action.

No matter how frustrated we are with process, however, it’s important to remember that the question of whether these cuts stick – and for how long -- remains up to the American people.  Legislators will be back at home over the weekend, so now’s the time to tell them what you think.  Following are some tips on how to so to:

• Be clear about your position: At a minimum be clear whether you’re “OK with it” or “not OK with it.”  If you’re not OK with it, why?  Are flight delays really getting you down? (full disclosure, I’m flying on Sunday – hopefully).  Have the cuts impacted your job?  Your family?  Your health?  Your leisure time?  The weather (hopefully not).  Whatever it is that’s bugging you, tell that personal story.

• Recognize that reasonable people can disagree:  Because of the way district lines are drawn, many legislators represent citizens on just one end or the other of the political spectrum.  For example, there are some real differences between residents of the 12^th district of California (Rep. Pelosi) and the 8^th district of Ohio (Rep. Boehner) in terms of education level, occupation type, language spoken, commuting patterns – the list goes on and on.  I know this because I did a little research on www.census.gov.  In short, day-to-day life is very different for the citizens of these two areas.  Their political views, as well as the views of their representatives, reflect those differences.  So no matter how frustrated you are, remember that members of Congress are trying to reconcile the widely varying views of the American public. 

• Finally, please, please, please know what you’re talking about:  To paraphrase cartoonist Walt Kelly, “we have seen the enemy, and he (or she) is us.”  Why do I say that?  Well, according to Pew research polls (and as reported in this US News and World Report piece), “. . . two weeks ago, 72 percent of Americans cited reducing the deficit and cutting spending as items that should be the president and Congress's top priority. However, this week, when specifically asked what to cut, Americans polled didn't want to cut much at all! As a matter of fact, many programs they wanted to remain funded as is or to increase, with the exception of a small percentage that wanted less funding to go overseas for foreign aid.”  Sorry everyone, but “foreign aid” is less than .5% of the overall Federal budget.  It’s not going to make a dent.  We find more change in the couch cushions in Washington, D.C. than that.  Please don’t suggest this as a solution.  

Perhaps the best advice I can give is to be nice.  In politics, as in life, the person who disagrees with grace and respect gets the most attention.  They’re much more pleasant to deal with.

***The above article was written by Stephanie Vance, The Advocacy Guru. Follow her on Twitter. 

Three Messages that Work with the 113th Congress.

Did you know that of the 10,445 bills introduced in the 112^th Congress (2011-2012), only 284 became law?  If I did my math right, that’s less than 3%.  And a chunk of those were about renaming Post Offices and federal buildings.  Yeah, I know: that’s not very encouraging.  In defense of policymakers, however, those numbers do not include any bill-based amendments members of Congress may have attached to moving legislation.

Still, it’s pretty clear Congress is completely and totally inefficient. And to some degree it’s supposed to be.  Trying to get 271 people (1/2 the House plus ½ the Senate plus the President) to agree to the exact language of legislation before it becomes law is no easy feat – especially when those legislators represent widely varying constituencies.

That said, some might argue that the gridlock has gotten a bit out of hand.  The good news is that some messages still resonate with both sides of the aisle.  For example, it won’t shock you to hear that “saving money” and “cutting budgets” arguments carry a lot of weight these days.  But besides these somewhat obvious tactics, what other approaches have been working recently?  Here are three options to consider:

• Compromise / Bipartisanship:  Of the 284 bills that passed in the 112^th Congress, 105 were from Democrats, 176 were from Republicans and 3 were from Independents.  Frankly, these numbers surprised me. They reflect a higher degree of bipartisanship than I anticipated.  Perhaps more important, of those that passed the mass majority were cosponsored by both Democrats and Republicans.  Advocates who can argue that their perspective is shared by legislators on both sides of the aisle will likely have more success than others.

• Government Reform:  “Government Operations and Politics” and “Congress” are the top two categories of bills (as defined by the Library Congress) that have been introduced so far this year.  Policymakers really like being associated with legislative initiatives that allow them to appear to be “solving the problems in Washington.”  Does your proposal help achieve this goal?  If so how?

• “Must Pass”: Of the 1,476 bills introduced so far this year, three have passed.  They were bills to a) raise the debt ceiling before the U.S. government defaulted on its loans, b) provide relief for Hurricane Sandy victims and c) raise limits on the National Flood Insurance program (in the wake of Hurricane Sandy).  Most legislators and citizens saw these as must pass, emergency items.  Now, I’m not saying you should make your issue sound like a crisis.  But you should consider whether your issue connects to and/or can help address a current crisis.  By framing your message in that way, you may get the attention you deserve.

Above all, don’t despair.  You may be up against tough odds, especially if you want to move something through the process.  The way to overcome those odds is through persistence, vigilance and strategic messaging.  Hopefully these ideas will help you on your way!

***The above article was written by Stephanie Vance, The Advocacy Guru. Follow her on Twitter. 

It's Spring: Are you Stressed-Out About Your Lobby Day Yet?

Ah Spring -- when our thoughts turn to lobby days. If you're brave enough to arrange one, please do not commit any of the following seven deadly sins of lobby days.  You might be smote – or at least have an unsuccessful event.

The 2008 Farm Bill Extension and 2013 Farm Bill

The uncertainty for the passage of a five year Farm Bill in the 112^th Congress came to an end on New Year’s Day with the passage of H.R. 8 The American Taxpayer Relief Act.  The bill was passed to avoid the fiscal cliff, a collection of spending cuts and tax increases that might have plunged the country into another recession, and included a 9 month partial Farm Bill extension. 

The extension only includes basic tenants of the Farm Bill and failed to reauthorize and fund several programs. The National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition has a blog post with a very detail explanation as to why the Farm Bill extension is so awful. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack stated in his interview with NPR that those reliant on Farm Bill programs “…are now faced with uncertainty with how the policies might be, [they are faced with] uncertainty with how much support will ultimately be available once a five year bill is eventually past.”

Looking to the future, Senate Agriculture Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) said in an interview that she expects to pass a Farm Bill in the coming months. The bill may be marked up in the Senate committee as early as February and should include a minimum of $24 billion of deficit reduction. On the House side, Chairman Frank Lucas (R-OK) said during the Agriculture Committee's organizational meeting on January 22nd that "...this is a new Congress and a new opportunity to pass a new Farm Bill." House Ranking Member Collin Peterson (D-MN) is leading an effort to block a Farm Bill markup without the assurance from the House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) that the bill will see floor time. He expressed some of his frustration during the organizational meeting. 

*** Follow Nick on Twitter. 

Congress Prevents The Fiscal Cliff By Creating Another Cliff

Early in the morning on New Year's Day, Congress passed legislation to avert the ominous "fiscal cliff", a combination of spending cuts and tax increases that could have reverted the nation into a recession. The bill is now on its way to President Obama's desk to be signed.

In the Senate, the bill passed by a vote of 89-8 with 3 Democrats and 5 Republicans voting against the bill. The House passed the bill by a vote of 257-167 with 16 Democrats and 151 Republicans voting against the cliff deal.

The fiscal cliff deal, officially H.R. 8, The American Taxpayer Relief Act, includes the following provisions:

- Permanently extends Bush tax cuts for the majority of taxpayers. Taxes will increase on individuals making $400,000 or more and couples making $450,000 or more.

- Taxes on capital gains and dividends will remain the same for individuals making less than $400,000 and households with an income of less than $450,000. The top tax rate of capital gains will increase from 15% to 20%.

- Tax exceptions will be phased out for individuals making $250,000 or more and families earning more than $300,000.

- Delays sequestration cuts for 2 months. The delay will be paid for with savings from adjustments in federal pensions as well as cuts in discretionary and military spending.

- One year extension for unemployment insurance.

- One year "Doc Fix" that prevents 27% cut in physicians' reimbursement for Medicare.

- Estate tax will increase from 35% to 40% for the first $5 million in assets.

- Alternative Minimum Tax will permanently be tied to inflation.

- Five year extensions of the American Opportunity Tax Credit, Child Tax Credit, and the Earned Income Tax Credit.

- Business tax breaks.

- Nine month Farm Bill extension.

- Congressional pay freeze.

Although the nation did not fall off the cliff, the fiscal cliff deal may have setup a future crisis that the 113th Congress will need to tackle in the coming months. The crisis will be the simultaneous enactment of sequestration cuts and the debt limit expiration. Additionally, the FY13 budgeting CR will expire a few weeks after.  Prepare for the fiscal cliff 2.0.

The Mayans, the Fiscal Cliff, Your Bar Tab and YOU

Hold on to these -- you might need them!

You've probably heard that the country is heading toward a fiscal cliff.  Of course, some people see it as less of a cliff and more of a downhill incline or even a bump in the road.  Personally, I see it as the fiscal "perfect storm."  If Congress doesn't act (always a good bet) by December 31st, several things that might independently cause problems for the economy would all happen at once, including:

• Tax cuts initially championed by President Bush, such as a reduced rate for capital gains, a top tax rate of 35% as opposed to 39.6% and myriad other tidbits generally geared toward higher income individuals would expire. Whether you think they should expire or not, their immediate elimination would certainly cause a bit of an economic kerfluffle.
• Physicians would see an almost 30% reduction in the amount they are reimbursed for Medicare patients.  OK, yeah, many physicians make a fair amount of money.  But imagine if your income were suddenly reduced by over 25% all because you served a certain population of people.  Would you keep serving those people?  Maybe not.  Would you increase rates for other people?  Quite possibly.
• Deep and immediate cuts in domestic and defense programs of between 8.5 and 10% (maybe more) would take place.  "Good riddance" some might say -- until it's a program that impacts you, like that national park you were going to visit, or that government sponsored meal service you were hoping for, or that small business loan you were expecting.  And don't get me started on unemployment benefits.
• Payroll taxes on employees, which were cut as part of economic recovery efforts, would increase from 4.2% to 6.2%.  For a person making $40,000 per year, that's about $30 per paycheck, probably not life-changing, but definitely irritating.  Imagine the impact on bar tabs.  

Incidentally, this bar tab thing is important to me so I did the math.  According to the Wine Institute, on a per capita basis Americans drink about 2.54 gallons or 22 glasses of wine (those are "light" pours) per year.  Now I don't know the average amount for a glass of wine, so I'm going to guess $6, although that's probably high because there's a lot of two buck chuck out there.  If everyone spends 2% less on wine, the over $830 million in revenue!  This could be a wine tragedy of gargantuan proportions.

If you want to know how it might impact you, check out the Washington Post's "fiscal cliff calculator." Just don't freak out at the numbers.  I'm also a fan of their FAQs. 

There are two pieces of good news in all this.  First, it's probably more likely than not that Congress will take some action to forestall the potential devastation.  Although there are some who suggest that going over the fiscal cliff might either a) not be so terrible or b) actually benefit the economy, most feel that they don't want to take the risk of ruining everyone's holiday season by bringing on economic Armageddon.

Second, and perhaps more important, according to the Mayan calendar the world will end on December 21st.  So it's all a moot point anyway.  And just in case the Mayans were wrong, the economic boost from all the end of the world parties might just keep the economy afloat until we can figure this thing out.