Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Political Prognosticators

I attended a terrific event with political prognosticator extraordinaire Charlie Cook today. First of all, he referred to some great websites we can all use to keep an eye on the latest polling numbers, including the Gallup daily poll, where users can sign up for a daily e-mail update of the latest and greatest in campaign numbers.  Other great sites are and

He had also, of course, had some useful / interesting things to say about the upcoming election, including:
  • Young voters are registering in droves and are likely to actually vote in the general this year.
  • He does not believe that Obama supporters should worry about the "Bradley effect," where voters might indicate that they would support an African American for president in pre-election polls and then change their mind in the voting booth. 
  • White voters over 50 are the toughest group for Obama to attract, and may be the ones that ultimately decide the election.
  • Democrats should expect to gain 6 to 8 seats in the Senate and anywhere from 12 to 20 in the House.
  • Obama's lead, although narrow, has been steady.  Unless something dramatic happens, he's likely to maintain that lead and win the overall election.
It was an entertaining and thought-provoking session.  We'll have to see if it was prescient in about a month!

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